Shanghai semumiriri wekutangazve kwekutanga kwekugadzirwa, regai tariro imutsirwe, asi pamberi peindasitiri yesimbi ndiyo mwedzi mina yekutanga yedata re melancholy.
Kubva munaJanuary kusvika munaEpril 2022, kugadzirwa kwesimbi yepasi rose kwakadonha 10.3% gore negore, kugadzirwa kwesimbi yenguruve kwakadonha 9.4% gore negore uye kugadzirwa kwesimbi kwakadonha 5.9% gore negore.Pakati pavo, munaEpril, hupfumi hwenyika husina kuchena hwakadonha 5.2% gore negore, kugadzirwa kwesimbi yenguruve kwaive kwakadzika uye simbi yakabuda yakadonha 5.8% gore negore.
Zvichakadaro, mumwedzi mina yekutanga ye2022, chiyero chekukura kweiyo real estate investimendi chakadonha ne2,7%, hupfumi hwezvivakwa hwakakura ne6,5% gore-pagore, uye kugadzirwa kwekudyara kwakakura ne12,2% gore negore.Idzi inzvimbo nhatu dzine hukama zvakanyanya ne "simbi kudiwa", mumusika wekutengesa zvivakwa uye kukura kwekugadzira kukura kunotarisirwa kuve kunowanzo kuzeza maitiro, zvivakwa zvinoroverwa patariro huru.
6.5%, zvinoratidzika kuti kukura kwezvivakwa hakuna kuipa, asi maererano neEconomic Observer bvunzurudzo, zvivakwa zvino zvinoratidza kushomeka kwekushandisa simba rekudhonza.Semuenzaniso, mubvunzurudzo nemakambani ekugadzira michina, avo, iye zvino, chikwereti chehurumende dzemunharaunda, pamwe chete nekubhadhara kweinjiniya yepamusoro kunowanikwa zvakanyanya, izvo zvinoita kuti mari muzvivakwa, kunyange kana yakakura kwazvo, asiwo. inoda kushandisa chikamu chakati wandei kuzadza iyo yapfuura purojekiti zvikwereti, kuita kune data, ndiko kuti, kuwedzera kwekudyara kwezvivakwa kwakakura, asi kudhonzwa chaiko kwezvivakwa kune zvishoma.
Mukuwedzera, mamwe mafemu ebrokerage anotenda kuti kukura kwezvivakwa muna Ndira-Kubvumbi, asi zvakare haigone kufuratira zvinhu zvakati wandei, yekutanga pfungwa ndiyo inflation factor, yekutanga kota PPI inowedzera gore-pagore kukura kwe8,7%, zvichireva. kuti chaiyo mari kukura mwero mambure mutengo zvinhu zvingasava zvakanyanya.Semuyenzaniso, sechinhu chikuru chebetsero yekuvaka mugwagwa, kushandiswa kweasphalt mukota yekutanga kwakadonha 24.2% gore-negore, nepo mitengo yakakwira 22.7% gore negore.Yechipiri poindi ndiyo yemwaka chinhu, huwandu hwekudyara kwezvivakwa mukota yekutanga sechikamu chegore kazhinji chakaderera (kazhinji hachipfuuri 15%), izvo zvinoreva kuti chiyero chekukura chakakura zvakanyanya.Pamusoro pezvo, kubva kunobva mari, mari yekushandisa pamberi uye yakakosha simba rechikwereti ndiyo kiyi, ichipa kunenge kwese kwegore negore kuwedzera kwemari yezvivakwa.
Infrastructure, real estate, kugadzira, zvinogona kutsigira "simbi kudiwa" muna 2022? Musi waJune 1, bepanhau rakabvunzurudza steel network muongorori Zeng Liang.
Economic Observer: Mukufunga kwako, musika wesimbi watanga here kudiwa kwekutangazve basa nekugadzira mushure mekutenderera kwazvino kwedenda?
Zvinoenderana nedata rakatevedzwa nesimbi network, nekuvandudzwa kuri pachena kwedenda munyika yese, iyo boom index yeindasitiri yesimbi yemumba yakawedzera, uye kushanda kweketani yeindasitiri yesimbi kwapora.
Kunyanya, maererano nekugadzirwa kwesimbi, kubva muna Chivabvu 25, chiyero chekutanga chedzimba dzakazvimirira dzemagetsi arc furnace mills yakateverwa neSteel Network yaive 66.67%, yakakwira 3.03 muzana mwedzi-pa-mwedzi;chiyero chekutanga chekuputika kwevira chemoto chaive 77%, yakakwira 0.96 muzana mapoinzi mwedzi-pa-mwedzi.Kubva pamaonero egore negore, mbaura yemagetsi arc furnace uye blast furnace simbi zvigayo zvakatanga basa zvakadonha ne15.15 percent uye 2.56 percent zvakateerana, kunyanya nekuda kweiyo shoma purofiti yekugadzirwa kwesimbi, iyo yakakanganisa kufarira kugadzirwa kwevamwe. zvigayo zvesimbi.Kubva kudivi rekutenderera kwesimbi, muna Chivabvu 27, huwandu hwese hwechitsinga chinotakurwa neFat Cat Logistics nhamba dzakakwira 2.07% vhiki nevhiki, zvichiratidza kuti kutenderera kwesimbi kwakatanga kukwira nekudzoreredzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kwekutakura zvinhu.
Pamusoro pezvo, kubva kudivi rekuda kwesimbi, pamwe nekukanganisa kwedenda paindasitiri yesimbi muna Chivabvu kunowedzera kupera simba, kudzoreredza zvishoma nezvishoma kwezvinhu uye zvekufambisa, mabizinesi esimbi ekupedzisira akatanga kutangazve basa nekugadzira, iyo indasitiri yesimbi yakadzika. index yakasimuka zvishoma mwedzi-pa-mwedzi.Zvinoenderana nedata rekutsvagisa simbi, iyo yakadzika simbi indasitiri PMI composite index yaive 49.02% muna Chivabvu 2022, yakakwira ne0.19 muzana mapoinzi mwedzi-pa-mwedzi.
Economic Observer: Kune yaNdira-Kubvumbi hurongwa hwekudyara kwekudyara kwe "ruvara", pane zvaunoona sei?
Kunyange zvazvo January-April zvivako zvekushandisa zvakawana kukura kwakanaka kwekukura, asi maonero ezvino ekugadzirwa kwesimbi kudiwa haana kunyanya kunaka, tinotenda kuti kuwedzera kune "chikwereti chitsva" zvakataurwa pamusoro apa, inflation zvinhu uye nheyo yakaderera. yekota yekutanga, pane zvikonzero zvakawanda zvezvinotevera.
Imwe, kunyange hafu yekutanga yezvivakwa zvekutsigira pasi pegwaro rekudzikamisa kukura kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, kusanganisira zvine mwero pamberi peiyo hupfumi hwekudyara, yakakosha kuburitsa chikwereti kumberi, chikwereti chakakosha chemunharaunda kuwedzera saizi yekumhanya kwekuburitsa, nezvimwe, nezvimwe. ., asi kubva kupolicy kuenda kumari iripo, uyezve kuumbwa kwemuviri webasa reprojekiti pasi, kazhinji inoda 6-9 mwedzi yekutenderera kutenderera, saka, isu tinotenda kuti hupfumi hwezvivakwa mune yekutanga. hafu yegore vangada kuti Chechipiri hafu yegore kuti zvizere kuumba muviri basa mutoro, uye nokudaro kuumba kudiwa simbi.
Chechipiri, denda rakapararira munzvimbo dzakawanda muhafu yekutanga yegore, richikanganisa nguva yakareba, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwakanyanya mukufambira mberi kwekuvaka kwezvivakwa zvakawanda zvezvivakwa, zvichiita kuti mwaka wekuvaka kwezvivakwa wegore rino uchinjwe kubva makore apfuura.
Chechitatu, gore rino hurongwa hwekudyara zvivakwa hwakapatsanurwawo.Kubva pakuparara, Ndira kusvika Kubvumbi, magetsi, kupisa, gasi uye kugadzirwa kwemvura uye indasitiri yekugovera mari yakawedzera ne13.0%, indasitiri yekutonga kwemvura uye indasitiri yezvivakwa zveveruzhinji yakawedzera ne12.0% uye 7.1%, indasitiri yekutakura migwagwa uye indasitiri yekutakura njanji yaive. kumusoro 0.4% uye pasi 7.0%.Sezvinoonekwa, maitiro echinyakare ezvivakwa ane husimbe, kusiyana uku mugore kana kuenderera mberi, kuchaunzawo shanduko kudiwa kwesimbi.Panyaya yemazuva ano zvivakwa zvehurongwa hwekumisikidza mhiri kwebhodhi, zvivakwa zvitsva zvakaita semasvomhu network, data center, intelligent logistics, etc. izvo zvisingaverengeki zvinogona kuwana kukura kwekudyara kwepamusoro, asi hurongwa hutsva hahusi pachena kune simbi inoda drive. .
Economic Observer: Kana iyo "ruvara" rwezvivakwa muna Ndira-Kubvumbi isina kukwana, zvino inotevera, kana zvivakwa zviripo zvichave nekumwe kuvandudzwa?
Pamasikati eChivabvu 30, Bazi reMari rakakumbira kukurumidza kuburitswa uye kushandiswa kwemabhondi ehurumende yenzvimbo uye kuwedzera huwandu hwerutsigiro, uye kuyedza kusimudzira kukura kwakadzikama uye kugadzikana kwekudyara.Pakazara, kufambira mberi kwekushandiswa kwezvisungo zvakakosha zvakaburitswa zvakapoteredza zviri nani.Kubva muna Chivabvu 27, huwandu hunosvika 1.85 trillion yuan hwemabhondi matsva akapihwa, kuwedzera kunosvika 1.36 trillion yuan panguva imwe cheteyo gore rapfuura, ichiverengera 54% yemuganho wakapihwa.Uye Ministry of Finance yakataura kuti madhipatimendi ezvemari epurovhinzi anofanirwa kugadzirisa hurongwa hwekupa mabhondi, kusarudza zvine musoro nguva yekuburitsa, kukurumidza kufambiswa kwemari, kuve nechokwadi chekuti mabhondi matsva gore rino pakupera kwaChikumi aburitswa, uye kuyedza kuve inonyanya kushandiswa pakupera kwaAugust.
Kubva pakuona kwekudiwa kwesimbi yezvivakwa, tinotenda kuti nemwedzi waChikumi kusvika kuhafu yechipiri yegore, kuuya zvishoma nezvishoma kwemari yekuvaka mapurojekiti ezvivakwa munyika yose, zvivakwa zvingangodonhedzwa mushure mekunge denda ranyatsogadziriswa. kuti tigadzirise kufambira mberi, saka tinotarisira kuti chikamu chechipiri chegore chicharamba chiine kusunungurwa kwezvirongwa zvezvivakwa kuti zvienderane nezvinodiwa, tinotarisira kuti muna 2022 simbi yezvivakoti inotarisirwa kuunza kukura.Zvinoenderana neiyo simbi yekuda modhi yakayerwa neKutsvaga Simbi, iyo gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwezvivakwa simbi kudiwa muna 2022 inogona kunge iri muchikamu che4% -7%.
Economic Observer: Pamusoro pezvivakwa, zvivakwa ndeimwe nzvimbo huru yekushandisa simbi.2.7% gore-pa-gore kuderera kwekukura kwekudyara kwezvivakwa kubva munaNdira kusvika Kubvumbi, asi hurumende dzenzvimbo dziri kuita nepadzinogona napo kumutsiridza musika wedzimba.Unofungei nezvemusika wekutengesa zvivakwa kudhonzwa pa "simbi inodiwa" gore rino?
Kunyangwe iyo real estate regulation policy ichiramba ichidzikama, tight credit zvakare yakashanduka kuti ive nyore, asi iko zvino kufambiswa kwepolicy pamusoro pebasa rezvivakwa hakuna kunyatso kuoneka.
Kubva pakuona kwekutengesa zvivakwa, Ndira-Kubvumbi real estate nzvimbo yekutengesa yakadonha 20.9% gore-ne-gore, itsva real estate kuvaka uye kupedzisa nzvimbo yakadonha 26.3% uye 11.9%, real estate kuvaka nzvimbo yaive yakatsetseka gore-mberi. -gore, kuita kwese kuchiri kunetsa kutaura tarisiro.Uye zvakare kubva kune real estate yekutora nyika mamiriro, nekuda kwekutengesa zvivakwa uye kuvaka hazvisati zvaona kuvandudzwa, vanogadzira zvivakwa vakagadzirira kutora ivhu rakashata, 31 mapurovhinzi nemaguta emubhadharo wepasi akadonha zvakanyanya gore negore, Ndira-Kubvumbi. real estate land yekutora nzvimbo yakadonha zvakanyanya ne46.5% gore-pagore.Pakupedzisira kubva real estate simbi mamiriro, nokuti 2022 January-April real estate sales, kuvaka itsva, ivhu kutora zvachose kuramba kuderera zvikuru, tinotarisira kuti yose kudiwa real estate simbi muna 2022 acharamba ari pasi chiteshi.Zvinoenderana neiyo huru yekuvandudza zviratidzo zveiyo real estate, kudiwa kwesimbi kune real estate muna 2022 kunogona kudonha ne2% -5% gore-pagore.
Nguva yekutumira: Jun-08-2022